 |  | | 435 districts, 50 states, one campaign newsletter. | | | | | | | In this edition: Republicans versus the "enemy within," a New Hampshire campaign that has nothing to do with the presidential primary, and a Supreme Court ruling with a cliffhanger ending. Twitter might get worse, so you better stick to reading newsletters. This is The Trailer.  A Republican display is seen at the Morning in Nevada PAC's Basque Fry at Corley Ranch on Aug. 14, 2021, in Gardnerville, Nev. (Sam Metz/AP) | SIMI VALLEY, Calif. — There's no new Contract for America, no real party platform, and no rebranded New Deal. But as their midterm election prospects brighten, Republicans are talking more boldly about an agenda that goes beyond the one Donald Trump ran on — further to the right, and designed to dismantle the left. "It's time to declare a new war on crime that won't stop until the carnage stops," Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) said on Monday at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, calling the 2018 passage of criminal justice reform the "worst mistake" Donald Trump ever made. A few hours earlier, on the other side of the country, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) defended legislation that would ban discussion of sexual orientation and gender identity for public school students until third grade. "We're going to make sure that parents can send their kid to kindergarten without having some of this stuff injected into the school curriculum," DeSantis told a reporter in Plant City, Fla. "You peddle false narratives, and we disabuse you of those narratives." And in another part of Florida, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) had just pitched his far-reaching "Rescue Plan" to the Conservative Political Action Conference, saying that the Republicans who'd worried about it — nervous about the politics of an income tax that would hit the very poor — were out of touch with real voters and the harm being done to them. "We're going to stop the government from asking anyone what their race or skin color is on any government form," Scott said in Orlando last month, as paper copies of the 11-point plan were handed out to conference attendees. "We will treat socialism as a foreign adversary and use all force to stop it from destroying this great country." The overall strategy is to portray America's problems as fixable — sometimes easily fixable — and mostly created by left-wing malcontents who hate the country. It's not the first time Republicans have made that argument when out of power. But until 2021, the GOP had never lost the White House and Congress while being in control of most state legislatures, where it could drive its own agenda and make the president react to it. And while Trump has remained more focused on overturning the 2020 election than on the party's policy agenda, that focus, shared by most Republicans, has convinced most in the party that it will win the next election without moderating any of its positions, or its rhetoric about domestic enemies who want to stab America in the back. "I was honored to serve in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in southeast Asia, in the Horn of Africa. I was in BUD/S training when Sept. 11 happened. But the greatest threat to our country exists right now," former Missouri governor Eric Greitens, a candidate for U.S. Senate, said at a Missouri rally organized last week by the U.S. "People's Convoy". "When I took the oath to serve as a Navy SEAL," Greitens added, "I took an oath to defend our Constitution against all enemies — foreign and domestic." The crowd, a few days away from its main convoy ride in Washington, shouted the last two words — "and domestic" — along with the candidate. Campaigning across the country, paying special attention to the first voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, non-Trump Republicans have been sketching out policies that build on the last president's record, but attack their enemies more efficiently. "The militant left has now seized control of our economy, our culture, and our country," Scott said at CPAC. On Tuesday, at a meeting with "People's Convoy" representatives in Washington, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) identified the forces that truckers and their allies were fighting against as "that nexus of power, of government authoritarians, big tech and the corporate media lying about it." Russia's invasion of Ukraine drowned out all other Republican messaging for a few days, pulling the party into an argument about whether Trump had been too friendly with Vladimir Putin and too ready to take Russia's side in a conflict. But when the news cycle settled down, the scenes from Eastern Europe began appearing in Republican messaging and campaign ads. The president, Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told Fox Business last week, was "held captive by this leftist climate group who wants to keep energy prices high, who is against exploring for American energy." American weakness was less of a blunder, to them, and more of a plot. "Joe Biden caved to the radical environmentalists and stopped America's Keystone pipeline," a narrator says in the first commercial from Advancing American Freedom, a think tank created by former vice president Mike Pence last year. The cancellation of a pipeline that was not scheduled to be completed until 2023 was "endangering America's security, and helping Russia fund their invasion." The energy angle was a no-brainer for Republicans — the party is unified in favor of deregulation, drilling, fracking and coal. More enterprising politicians, like DeSantis and Cotton, were going further, identifying internal threats to America and saying that the party needed to attack, knowing that they'd be lashed by mainstream media when they did. "If you believe in kind of the core principles that made the country great, if you believe in those traditional values, you're under assault from a wide range of institutions now," DeSantis told the conservative author and radio host Mark Levin on Feb. 13, comparing the current Republican challenge to the one Ronald Reagan faced when he took over from Jimmy Carter. "The rot in some of the culture, I don't think, was as severe as it is now," DeSantis added. "So you've got to get the policy right at the federal level, but you've also got to be battling all those institutions." Many of the ideas exciting conservatives have come from Florida, or been implemented by DeSantis. Some are being worked out on the trail, like a crackdown on Chinese influence in America — another enemy within, but one that some Republicans had helped the left let in. "You should demand that your mayor, your county commissioner, your governor does not kowtow, does not bend the knee, to the Chinese Communist Party," former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, who has been campaigning in swing states for Republican candidates, said at CPAC. "You should make sure that your state pension system isn't underwriting the very weapons that the Chinese Communist Party may one day use to attack our great nation." At the Reagan Library, Cotton called for a ban on "U.S. investment in strategic Chinese industries," and to "decouple our supply chains" from China, another idea that goes much further than Trump, who had signed a trade deal with China, had been willing to. Cotton said more about crime, attacking the "faddish claim that our nation has an 'over-incarceration problem,'" and regretting that so many Republicans, like Trump, had gone along with an idea that cost Americans their lives in the name of sensitivity. "Republicans must work to recall, remove, and replace every last Soros prosecutor," said Cotton, referring to liberal district attorneys who, in many cities, had been supported by PACs with funding from left-wing megadonor George Soros. He signaled an affinity for the tactics employed by Andrew Jackson, the military general who eventually became president. "In 1818, criminals and marauders used lawless portions of Spanish Florida as bases to attack and kill American citizens," said Cotton. "In response, General Jackson invaded Spanish territory, rooted out those responsible, and then conquered the Spanish capital just for good measure. We should show the same resolve in the face of crime and lawlessness today." That's not the kind of election year rhetoric preferred by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who has tangled in public and private with Scott over the idea of a governing plan. It's not how House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) talks, as he recruits candidates and pounds the Biden administration over inflation. But a tough, conservative agenda, from rolling back criminal justice reforms to silencing sex and race talk in public schools, is already being written. | | | Reading list  Former president Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds on Oct. 9, 2021, in Des Moines, Iowa. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post) | "Trump muses on war with Russia and praises Kim Jong Un," by Josh Dawsey Inside a Florida fundraiser. "Biden makes his midterm message clear: 'Fund the police,'" by Cleve R. Wootson, Jr. A campaign refrain from 2020 gets remixed for 2022. "High-powered group targets Trump lawyers' livelihoods," by Lachlan Markay and Jonathan Swan The 65 Project and its big idea. "How far-right militia groups found a foothold in deep-blue California," by Scott Wilson Using a recall election to grab new power. "In D.C.'s poorest wards, Bowser touts advances as she courts a wary electorate," by Paul Schwartzman The electorate in the nation's capitol starts thinking about 2022. "American democracy is broken. Can proportional representation fix it?" by Osita Nwanevu One weird trick to stop gerrymandering. "Pence says there's no room in the GOP for 'apologists for Putin' in veiled swipe at Trump," by Josh Dawsey, Adela Suliman, and Timothy Bella The ex-Veep keeps drawing contrasts with his old boss. "Socialists' response to war in Ukraine has put some Democrats on edge," by Dana Rubenstein and Katie Glueck Who wants to talk about leaving NATO? Not many elected socialists. | | | In the states New Hampshire. A number of communities are holding local elections today, including some races for control of school boards — and Republicans running for other offices want in on the action. Matt Mowers, a Republican candidate for Congress in the new 1st Congressional District, said in a brief interview that he'd been campaigning alongside a number of candidates, including Michelle Tyler and Koleen Crawford in Gilford, and Kim Allan and Mike MacDonald in Hudson — both towns that backed Donald Trump in 2020 by single-digit margins. "You're seeing energy unlike anything you've ever seen before," Mowers said. "They're out knocking on doors every single day, raising record amounts of money for school board elections. And it's being funded by parents who just want to get a voice back in their school, in their curriculum, and how their kids are learning." Utah. Candidate filing closed on Friday, with no big surprises, and a few Democrats filing for U.S. Senate against Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah). Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson, one of the state's most prominent Democrats, said in a Monday statement that it was a mistake for anyone in her party to run, endorsing Evan McMullin's independent campaign against Lee. "Democrats are not winning," she told the Deseret News. "I just think we need to do things differently as Democrats." Democrat Darlene McDonald was the only member of her party to file in the 4th Congressional District, which the party held from 2019 to 2021, and which a new Republican map made safer for new Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Utah). Minnesota. The late Rep. Jim Hagedorn was laid to rest on Saturday, and four Republicans have filed for the special election to replace him in the 1st Congressional District. Hagedorn's widow, former Minnesota GOP chair Jennifer Carnahan, has not entered the race; State Rep. Jeremy Munson and former state Rep. Brad Finstad, both Republicans, are the first candidates with experience in elected offices to file. Democrat Dan Feehan, who lost two close races to Hagedorn, said last week that he would not run in the special election. Richard W. Painter, a former Republican ethics lawyer who became a Democrat and ran for U.S. Senate in 2018, filed to run after Feehan's announcement. | | | Ad watch  Josh Mandel, a Republican running for a U.S. Senate seat in Ohio, speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando, Fla., on Feb. 25, 2022. (Tristan Wheelock/Bloomberg News) | Advancing American Freedom, "Horrific Decision." Former Vice President Mike Pence's 501(c)(4) organization is spending $10 million and targeting 30 House Democrats, mostly in swing seats with this ad. Because it's a nonprofit "educational" spot, it doesn't urge people to vote against those Democrats, but to call and register disapproval with the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline. "Before hundreds of innocent Ukrainians had lost their lives, a horrific decision had been made," a narrator says, asserting that the decision to scrap the pipeline would end up "helping Russia fund their invasion." (The pipeline was not due to be completed until 2023; Biden issued a ban on Russian oil imports on Tuesday.) Citizens for Josh Mandel, "Clear." Before this race, Josh Mandel's campaigns in Ohio tended to emphasize his work as state treasurer and his Ohio Transparency Project, a tea party-inspired campaign to put government budget information online. This spot, for his U.S. Senate campaign, returns to the theme, with a quick introduction from Amy Kissinger, a trustee of the Ohio School Boards Association, who calls politics a "crooked cesspool" so Mandel, who served in various elected roles from 2007 to 2019, can explain how he tried to change it. "The politicians hated it," Mandel says. "I'm a United States Marine. Think I cared?" Gibbons for Ohio, "Washington Wimps." Another day, another set of Ohio U.S. Senate ads that accuse some candidates of betraying Donald Trump. Gibbons, who's added some Trumpworld veterans to his campaign, appears only in file footage: Most of the quotes come from J.D. Vance and Jane Timken, who've been pounded by the Club for Growth and other candidates for speaking critically of Trump. All have been aired on TV before, and Timken's early refusal, as state GOP chair, to condemn Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R) for voting to impeach Trump continues to haunt her, nearly a year after she called for him to resign. "They're no different than Democrats," a narrator says, "because they're weak." Boozman for Arkansas, "Becci." Donald Trump campaigned alongside "angel moms," women whose children had been killed by undocumented immigrants, and said that tougher border policies would have prevented it. This is one of a few new GOP ads to prominently feature an "angel mom," handing the microphone to Dee Engle so she can tell the story of Rebecca Ann Johnson, her late cousin. Sen. John Boozman supports finishing a border wall, Engle says, so she supports him. "The work that Sen. Boozman is doing will save many lives," Engle says, "and families having to go through what our family's gone through." You are reading The Trailer, the newsletter that brings the campaign trail to your inbox. | | | | | | Poll watch  Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) updates the media after touring tornado-damaged parts of Winterset, Iowa, on Sunday. (Bryon Houlgrave/The Des Moines Register via AP) | Iowa Governor 2022 (Iowa Poll, 612 likely voters) Kim Reynolds (R): 51%
Deidre DeJear (D): 43% The first poll of this year's likely matchup for Iowa governor finds Reynolds favored to win a second term. But DeJear, a Democratic operative and unsuccessful 2018 candidate for Secretary of State, starts with some more support than other Democrats currently have in Iowa. In the same poll, 59 percent of Iowans say they have a negative view of Biden's job performance, and in another recent Iowa Poll, Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) held a commanding reelection lead over former Rep. Abby Finkenauer, who ran ahead of DeJear when they shared a ballot in 2018. But some people who voted Democratic in 2020 are critical of Biden and fond of Grassley. Reynolds's approval rating is 49 percent, and her support is more tied to partisanship, with much of her lead coming from an 8-point advantage from independents. "Would you compare Vladimir Putin's actions against Ukraine to Adolf Hitler's actions against Austria and Czechoslovakia before the outbreak of World War II?" (Quinnipiac, 1374 adults) Yes: 50%
No: 31%
Don't know: 11% Quinnipiac has asked a number of questions to find out how Americans are processing the fast-changing news from Ukraine. This may be the strangest, asking if two German actions that annexed territory without warfare — the Anschluss, and the handover of parts of Czechoslovakia — were similar to Putin's military invasion. Most Americans say they see the similarity, led by Democrats, 60 percent of whom agree with the comparison. "Do you approve or disapprove of how President Biden is handling the situation with Russia and Ukraine?" (NPR/Marist, 1322 adults) Approve: 52% (+18 since Feb. 2022)
Disapprove: 44% (-6) Like last week's Quinnipiac polling, the latest from Marist finds a big spike in support for how the president is handling Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The bipartisan support Biden used to enjoy on his handling of the pandemic, which declined after the summer of 2021 and the Delta variant, gets a sequel here: 17 percent of Republicans say they're happy with Biden, on this issue. Quinnipiac found a little decrease in negative views of Biden, too, and these numbers show a more significant bump, with Biden's overall ratings rising to the high 40s after a deep slump. | | | Redistricting  The United States Supreme Court building as seen on Tuesday in Washington. (Katherine Frey/The Washington Post) | The Supreme Court turned back Republican plaintiffs in Pennsylvania and North Carolina on Monday, rejecting challenges to state Supreme Court justices who had overruled or supplied replacements for maps drawn by GOP legislators. Republicans had asked the court for a stay, to let them carry out the 2022 elections on maps more favorable to their party, and a majority refused to consider it. But a dissent from Associate Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. worried Democrats, who are nervous that five of the court's six conservatives may embrace a precedent-melting legal theory that state legislatures have sole discretion over voting laws and redistricting in their states. "We will have to resolve this question sooner or later, and the sooner we do so, the better," Alito wrote in a dissent joined by Justices Neil M. Gorsuch and Clarence Thomas. "This case presented a good opportunity to consider the issue, but unfortunately the Court has again found the occasion inopportune." That issue is what critics (and some adherents) call the Independent State Legislature Doctrine. The Elections Clause of the Constitution says that the "times, places and manner of holding elections for senators and representatives, shall be prescribed in each state by the legislature thereof." After the 2020 election, as Republicans looked for rationales to throw out ballots from states that had given their electoral votes to Joe Biden, they embraced a literal reading of that language, arguing that any changes to state elections not approved by state legislatures were unconstitutional. Under that reading, no entity except Congress could change how states ran their elections — and certainly not state Supreme Court justices, who in both Pennsylvania and North Carolina are elected by voters. Associate Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh wrote a separate dissent, suggesting he could revisit the North Carolina map in another year, not so close to the election. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Associate Justice Amy Coney Barrett did not explain their positions. In the short run, the decision will probably prevent Republicans from drawing more favorable maps this year, in those states. But maybe not forever. "The Supreme Court must grant certiorari — and finally end the Democrats' unconstitutional redistricting charade," tweeted Mike Davis, the co-founder of the conservative Article III Project and a former Gorsuch clerk. "North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and other states that ignored the Election Clause must be ordered to redraw their U.S. House maps for 2024." | | | On the trail  Truckers meet before departing to circle the Washington Beltway during "The People's Convoy" event in Hagerstown, Md., on Monday. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg News) | The "People's Convoy" hasn't shut down Washington, or the I-395 beltway that surrounds it. According to The Post's Ellie Silverman, it's been taking around 25 minutes for the convoy to pass; a driver starting at one point in the Beltway and stopping at that same point can make the trip, with no traffic, in an hour or so. There was no serious slowdown in traffic around the city. Still, the hundreds of people who'd driven in the convoy or joined the protest camp in Hagerstown, Md., were getting much of the attention they'd asked for. At a meeting Tuesday with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), truck driver Brian Brase said that state attorneys general had reached out during the convoy's trek across the country. And until that meeting, the highest-ranking official to greet the convoy was Indiana Attorney Gen. Todd Rokita, who shared the stage at last week's "Shifting Gears" rally during a stop in his state. "Generation after generation is being indoctrinated," Rokita told the crowd then, pacing the stage that the convoy had set up for guest speakers. "They're not being taught the things we were taught in grade school and high school. They're being taught garbage." Rokita was interrupted a few times by a man shouting for him to "do your job," which only paused the speech for a moment. "If you're looking for me to solve your problem, we will have a problem," said Rokita, turning to an anecdote about how when he visited schools and asked if they taught about "American Exceptionalism — capital A, capital E" — the vast majority had no idea what he was talking about. While the convoy had boosters across conservative media, fairly few politicians showed up to address it. Republicans mostly cheered it on from the sidelines, some of them doing so from states where the convoy was never heading, anyway. "We believe in freedom — not mandates," South Dakota Gov. Kristi L. Noem tweeted, adding a link to her campaign's donation page. "As Governor, I will always support the men and women who drive endless hours across the nation." | | | Countdown … 56 days until the next primaries
… 77 days until Texas runoffs
… 237 days until the midterm elections | | | | | | | | |
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