| For months now, you've been hearing — including from us — about how redistricting could lock Democrats out of power in key states and in Congress for years to come. That's because in the redistricting process happening right now, Republicans get to draw congressional boundaries in battleground states that will determine which party controls Congress. But as The Post's Colby Itkowitz and Harry Stevens report, Democrats actually aren't doing that bad in the redistricting battle. They've actually gained some districts that they're likely to win in November as maps across the country get redrawn. Here's why redistricting isn't a total loss for Democrats. Republicans already maxed out at gerrymandering: Republicans are really good at gerrymandering. The Constitution requires that congressional and state legislative maps get redrawn every decade, based on updated census data. Most states let state legislatures do that. And Republicans swept into power in 2010 in statehouses, just in time to take control of the process last decade. (They kept hold of that power in 2020.) And they carved and sliced and diced up districts so well that there isn't much more they can do, says the Brennan Center for Justice. Courts are overturning some GOP-drawn maps: In many key states, Democrats' only recourse has been to sue over the maps. So far that's been working out well for them. Judges in Alabama threw out maps there, saying Republicans packed Black voters into one district rather than drawing several that reflect the population. The state Supreme Court in Ohio threw out Republicans' maps for being too partisan. Many more lawsuits will be coming across the country as Democrats pounce on GOP-drawn maps. But going to the courts isn't a perfect strategy for Democrats. These lawsuits can take a while — in the last go-round in North Carolina, the two sides spent the entire decade fighting over maps. And in the interim, many elections will be held using these maps, including November's midterm elections. Democrats gerrymander, too: Democrats in Congress spent a year trying to ban partisan gerrymandering. But Democrats in the states have been using it to their advantage where they can. Colby has written a lot about how Democrats in Illinois and New York have stretched or are considering stretching liberal cities into as many congressional districts as possible. There's a push in the party to do more of that — to "fight fire with fire," as one Democrat said. But gerrymandering is particularly bad for people of color: Colby and Harry have analyzed maps passed so far and found that Black and Latino voters in particular have lost out on representation as legislators gerrymander them into districts that dilute their votes. What are the realistic chances of ... A few rapid-fire reader questions. ... Trump getting indicted? We don't know. But it is a high bar to indict a former president, and some fear it might send American politics down a slippery slope. The Biden Justice Department has been wary of any investigation of Donald Trump. But the Georgia county prosecutor looking into whether he broke election laws might not feel constrained by such precedents. ... the Electoral Count Act getting changed? It's a definite possibility. A bipartisan group of senators has been meeting recently to talk about how to change this 1880s-era law so that when the presidential election results get to Congress to get confirmed, it's clear that the vice president can't just override a state's electoral votes and that there's a higher bar for members of Congress to object to results. ... Democrats keeping the House and Senate? Let me put it this way. The party in power losing seats in the midterm elections is one of the surest trends in American politics. And Republicans need to gain only five seats in the House to take the majority, and just one in the Senate. What are you curious about in politics? Keep your questions coming. |